Like it or not, chance plays a big part in our lives. Every day we face situations where the result is uncertain, and, perhaps without realizing it, we guess about the likelihood of one outcome or another. Fortunately, mastering the concepts of probability can cast new light on situations where randomness and chance appear to rule. In this book, which uses lotteries and casino games to provide the many illustrative examples, the reader can learn about the world of probability. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. Written with wit and clarity, this book can be read easily by anyone who is not put off by a few numbers and some high-school algebra. It is also ideally suited to students of all disciplines taking their first course in probability.We begin our discussion of chance trees with some entertaining problems, such as the three-doors problem and the related three prisoners problem. A lot of time and energy have been expended in the solving of these two problems;anbsp;...
|Publisher||:||Cambridge University Press - 2004-08-16|