Given that the market is bullish, the probability that the forecast is bullish, and the ex post accuracy of forecasting a bear market as: Given that the market is bearish , ... Definition of bull/bear markets Bull markets are usually associated with those periods when expectations in the stock market are buoyant. ... One possible series of returns that could be used would be a time series of actual historical returns.
|Title||:||Gains from Stock Market Timing|
|Author||:||Jess H. Chua, Richard S. Woodward|