Against Prediction

Against Prediction

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From random security checks at airports to the use of risk assessment in sentencing, actuarial methods are being used more than ever to determine whom law enforcement officials target and punish. And with the exception of racial profiling on our highways and streets, most people favor these methods because they believe theya€™re a more cost-effective way to fight crime. In Against Prediction, Bernard E. Harcourt challenges this growing reliance on actuarial methods. These prediction tools, he demonstrates, may in fact increase the overall amount of crime in society, depending on the relative responsiveness of the profiled populations to heightened security. They may also aggravate the difficulties that minorities already have obtaining work, education, and a better quality of lifea€”thus perpetuating the pattern of criminal behavior. Ultimately, Harcourt shows how the perceived success of actuarial methods has begun to distort our very conception of just punishment and to obscure alternate visions of social order. In place of the actuarial, he proposes instead a turn to randomization in punishment and policing. The presumption, Harcourt concludes, should be against prediction.a€œParole Decision-Making: A Salient Factor Score.a€ Journal of ... Oa#39;Leary, V. Parole Administration. Chicago: Rand ... In Decision- Making in the Criminal Justice System: Reviews and Essays, ed. ... Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Inciardianbsp;...

Title:Against Prediction
Author:Bernard E. Harcourt
Publisher:University of Chicago Press - 2008-09-15


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